Recently, multiple sets of polyester filament installations have been under the background of national dual control, and news of production reduction has been frequently reported.
At present, domestic weaving orders have improved slightly, and winter warmth, down jackets and other fabrics are still available, but most of them are domestic trade orders, and the number of new orders for brand clothing is limited. There are still some expectations. Therefore, the market outlook does not rule out that under the expectation that weaving orders will improve, the polyester end will also be expected to recover.
Reduce inventory to meet the peak season
Since late August, factories have been continuously compressed due to cash flow and high inventory levels have begun to appear, resulting in some enterprises gradually reducing production and reducing burdens, and the operating rate has continued to decline. According to understanding, in August, the four domestic mainstream leading polyester The factories jointly reduced production by 20% of their production capacity, while other small and medium-sized factories in Xiaoshan, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, Huzhou and other small and medium-sized factories also reduced production to varying degrees, involving a production capacity of 5.139 million tons. For the downstream in the off-season in August, the overall early weaving market has shown a weak trend, which is why most weaving companies have not responded to polyester filament sales since August.
However, in September, filament factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other regions took the lead in launching promotions. The production and sales rate of mainstream manufacturers was 200%-800%, and then the industry carried out promotions to varying degrees. As of the week of September 13, the industry inventory has been It has dropped to 18 days, and it is in the historical center position. Although the polyester end has been partially restarted, due to the influence of double control, there are still companies that reduce the negative load. As of September 16, the polyester operating rate dropped to around 84.67%. With the successive issuance of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" orders, polyester filaments are expected to usher in a boom cycle in a low-stock environment.
There is no need to be pessimistic about "Golden Nine Silver Ten"
Affected by factors such as insufficient export capacity and rising shipping costs, most of the original Q3 export orders were placed in advance to Q2. We believe that the overall "Golden Nine Silver Ten" seasonal rigid demand effect has weakened, but due to the textile industry Affected by fashion trends, there are requirements for differentiation and timeliness. Most of the pre-orders are standard products such as warp knitted grey fabrics, and orders such as knitted garments are limited in advance. As of the week of September 13, the operating rate of downstream looms was 72%. , the chain was +2% last week, downstream demand rebounded moderately, and seasonal rigid demand is expected to be gradually released.
In addition, due to the impact of insufficient shipping capacity, the orders for the "Gold Three Silver Four" small market next year are expected to be placed 2-3 months ahead of schedule. Downstream enterprises will re-enter the stockpiling stage, and the market is expected to continue in Q4.
The cost side is strongly supported, and polyester filaments have been running in a warmer market recently. Considering that the downstream weaving has been moderately replenished recently, and the pressure of factory inventory during the double festival may restrict the floating space of polyester filaments, it is expected that if the raw materials do not fall significantly in the short term, Depending on the stock and specifications, polyester filament yarn is still expected to rise.